Shares try to steady, bonds fret on U.S. inflation
SYDNEY (Feb 12): Asian share markets were struggling to find their footing on Monday as investors fretted about the risks from looming U.S. inflation data, although early gains on S&P futures offered a sliver of support.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 percent, having suffered a 7.3 percent drubbing last week. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday, but Australia’s main index shed another 0.4 percent.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 edged up 0.5 percent, adding to a late bounce on Friday. Yet a relatively sharp 11 tick drop in Treasury bond futures suggested it was too early to sound an all-clear on volatility.
“A massive buildup in market leverage has been partially unwound in the blink of an eye and morphed into something far more broad-based,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at broker IG.
“One could argue that it is the U.S. bond market that is the driving force, and will remain so through this coming week.”
Particularly challenging will be U.S. consumer price data on Wednesday given it was fears of faster inflation, and thus more aggressive rate rises, that triggered the global rout in the first place.
Median forecasts are for consumer price inflation to slow a little to 1.9 percent in January, mainly due to base effects, while the core measure is seen ticking down to 1.7 percent.
A result in-line or lower would likely be a big relief, while anything higher could well spook investors, lift bond yields and batter stocks.
Aziz Sunderji, an economist at Barclays, suspects the inflation scare will prove to be transitory.
“Tight jobs markets will pressure wages upwards, but technology, automation, and globalization are important – and slow moving – forces acting in the opposite direction,” Sunderji argued in a note to clients.
“Paradigms don’t shift on a dime. In our view, the recent market turmoil is a bump in the road, not a wholesale change of direction.”
THE RETURN OF VOLATILITY
But what a bump it was. The benchmark S&P 500 fell 5.2 percent last week, its biggest decline since January 2016. Ninety-six S&P 500 stocks were down 20 percent or more from their own one-year highs, according to Thomson Reuters data.
In Asia, Hong Kong’s high-flying shares shed almost 10 percent for the week, while Japan lost 8.1 percent and South Korea 6.4 percent.
The pivotal gauge of S&P 500 volatility, the VIX, remained relatively elevated at 29 percent.
Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury paper touched a four-year top of 2.885 percent, moving ever further above the S&P 500’s dividend yield of 2.34 percent.
The ascent of yields offered some support to the U.S. dollar, which gained 1.4 percent on a basket of currencies last week to currently stand at 90.395.
The euro lost 1.8 percent for the week and was last changing hands at $1.2247.
Carry currencies, including the Australian dollar, and many emerging market currencies were also casualties of the rush from risk, which in turn benefited safe harbours such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
The dollar was hovering at 108.85 yen, having fallen 1.3 percent last week.
The mostly firmer dollar and worries about rising global interest rates hindered gold, which was stuck at $1,315.65 an ounce and just above a five-week low of $1,306.81.
Oil prices had also had a rough ride, with Brent down nearly 9 percent last week while U.S. crude dropped 10 percent, the steepest weekly declines since January 2016.
Early Monday, Brent crude futures were up 9 cents at $62.88 a barrel, while U.S. crude for April added 19 cents to $59.39. – Reuters
Source: The Edge