Markets now wagering on Fed rate cut, China-US trade talks calm nerves

Traders is pictured on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York January 3, 2019. — Reuters pic
Traders is pictured on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York January 3, 2019. — Reuters pic

SYDNEY, Jan 4 — Financial markets were on edge today as weak US economic data added to fears of a global slowdown and pushed investors to bet the Federal Reserve could reverse policy and start cutting interest rates before the end of this year.

But nerves were soothed somewhat by news that the United States and would hold vice-ministerial level talks next week on their trade dispute, with the Chinese blue-chip index turning 0.4 per cent higher.

futures, which had slipped in early Asian trade, also reversed early losses. E-Minis for the S&P 500 edged up 0.1 per cent while Nasdaq futures climbed 0.2 per cent.

Japanese shares skidded on their first trading day of the year today, with the Nikkei spiralling about 3.6 per cent lower on growth worries and a sharp jump in the yen.

MSCI’s index of Asia- shares outside Japan dipped 0.1 per cent lower to near two-month lows, weighed by a drop of about 1 per cent in Australian shares.

Fears that the Sino-US trade war would drag down world growth roiled risk-sensitive assets in 2018, driving a surge in volatility and sending major stock markets deep into the red.

Analysts now expect the two economic giants to find some common ground in their dispute, with added impetus possibly coming from a run of disappointing data and weak on both sides. However, there are less than two months left in a short negotiating window.

Data this week showed a marked loss of momentum in the world’s two largest economies.

Yesterday’s survey data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed US activity slowed more than expected in December.

The dismal ISM report came after Chinese data on Monday showed its manufacturing activity contracted in December for the first time in more than two years.

Adding to the gloom, Inc cut its revenue forecast on Wednesday for the first time in nearly 12 years, blaming weaker iPhone sales in China. Its shares crashed nearly 10 per cent overnight.

“This is more proof, if needed, that US President (Donald) Trump’s trade actions against China are now hurting the US as much as they are China; rather than being, as Trump would have us belief, a zero sum game where the US takes the spoils at all others’ expense,” said Ray Attrill, head of strategy at National Australia Bank.

There is “more reason to think a Sino-US trade deal is in the offing in coming weeks.”

The spectre of a deep economic downturn in the United States, or even a recession, spooked global investors who flocked away from risky to the safety of bonds.

Tightening cycle ends?

Investors had expected the US Federal Reserve to stay on its tightening path after three hikes last year, but the trade war and recent disappointing data have put those expectations to rest.

Investors are now fully pricing in a rate cut to 2.00-2.25 per cent by April next year.

The December Fed funds contract implies a cash rate of 2.23 per cent, below the current 2.25-2.50 per cent and expectations of 3 per cent just a couple of months ago.

In response, US Treasuries rallied with yields on two-year paper sinking below 2.4 per cent to reach parity with the federal funds effective rate for the first time since 2008.

Three — and five-year yields were even lower, an inversion that has sometimes heralded recessions in the past.

Yields on 10-year benchmark paper dropped to 2.55 per cent overnight, a staggering turnaround from the highs of 3.25 per cent seen as recently as November.

The falls kept the dollar on the defensive. The greenback plumbed a more than nine-month low of 105.25 against the safe-haven yen yesterday, driven by technical factors amid thin holiday trade.

It has fallen more than 2 per cent so far this week, the biggest weekly loss since last February, and was last at 107.93.

“The ISM has a long track-record and big moves often prove to be meaningful. The December drop therefore gives pause, even to us economic optimists,” said Michelle Girard, US economist at RBS..

“Now…a closely-watched indicator is flashing yellow, putting ourselves, and likely the Fed, on higher alert.”

Concerns about a US recession battered Wall Street overnight, with the Dow skidding 2.8 per cent, the S&P 500 down 2.5 per cent and Nasdaq losing more than 3 per cent.

Keeping with the risk-off theme, hit a 6-1/2-month peak of US$1,298.42 (RM5,374) an ounce today.

US light crude slid 15 cents to US$46.94 a barrel but held slightly above a 1-1/2 year trough touched just last month. slipped 27 cents to US$55.68. — Reuters

Source: The Malay Mail Online

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