Shares and oil at three-month highs but no love for euro

The German share price index, DAX board, is seen at the stock exchange in Frankfurt January 26, 2018. — Reuters pic
The German index, DAX board, is seen at the stock exchange in Frankfurt 26, 2018. — Reuters pic

LONDON, Feb 14 — Optimism about US- trade talks and bumper earnings lifted to a three-month high today, though news that Germany only dodged recession by the narrowest of margins left the euro feeling unloved.

Markets were generally in a cautious mood as investors hung on for any hint of progress in the tariff talks amid reports the White House could extend the deadline for a deal.

Stocks extended gains regardless. Strong results from , drugmaker AstraZeneca and plane giant Airbus lifted the pan-European STOXX 600 0.4 per cent and towards its best week since early November.

“Cupid continues to shoot out bullish arrows across financial markets with last week’s blip almost forgotten about for now,” Deutsche Bank said in a Valentine’s day morning note.

The euro did not share the loving feeling however.

It struggled near a three-month low as data showed Germany’s economy stalled in the fourth quarter, with fallout from global trade disputes and Brexit threatening to derail a decade-long expansion in Europe’s economic powerhouse.

Russian stocks and bonds were also dumped as a rare bipartisan move from US lawmakers proposed stiff new sanctions on Russian government debt as well as some banks and oil and gas firms.

The Kremlin said it could cope with any new measures but shares in Moscow tumbled more than 2 per cent amid a sharp spike in FX volatility gauges and a brisk selloff of most rouble-denominated government bonds.

“We were preparing ourselves for this eventuality,” said head of EM sovereign debt at Aberdeen Standard Investments Edwin Gutierrez. “But this is understandably causing a lot of noise and the US senators have certainly tightened the language (of sanctions proposals) since last year.”

On China, President Donald Trump said yesterday trade talks were “going along very well” and, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in China, investors had been daring to hope for good news.

Bloomberg said Trump was considering pushing back the March 1 deadline for higher tariffs on Chinese goods by 60 days.

But expectations have been disappointed before, and the reaction in Asian share markets was guarded. Shanghai blue chips closed broadly flat, having jumped 2 per cent yesterday to levels last seen in late September.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.15 per cent, though that was off a peak last seen in early October and Japan’s Nikkei finished flat having briefly touched its highest level this year.

Love spreads around

The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for China risks, gained 0.4 per cent to US$0.7114 (RM2.89) and S&P 500 futures added 0.15 per cent having closed above its 200-moving average for the second running yesterday.

The Aussie dollar had already got a small lift when Chinese trade data handily beat expectations in a welcome relief for the global economy.

Beijing reported exports rose 9.1 per cent in January from a year earlier, confounding forecasts of a fall, while imports dipped by a surprisingly slight 1.5 per cent.

The recent improvement in risk appetite undermined the safe haven yen though and propelled the dollar to its best levels of the year so far at 111.05.

The subdued European data though, which also saw Italy confirmed in recession, pushed long-term market expectations to new lows, while putting downward pressure on bond yields in the bloc.

The euro was at US$1.1265, not that far above the floor of a US$1.1213/1.1570 trading range that has held since mid-October.

Sterling was also on edge at US$1.2845 ahead of another parliamentary vote on British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan.

That all left the dollar near its highest since mid-December against a basket of currencies at 97.059.

In commodity markets, spot edged up 0.18 per cent to US$1,308.56 per ounce.

Oil prices found support as top exporter Saudi Arabia said it would cut crude exports and deliver an even deeper output cut.

US crude was up 56 cents, or 1 per cent, at US$54.42 a barrel, while crude futures rose 97 cents to US$64.50, its highest since November.

“Thanks to healthy oil demand growth and lower OPEC+ production … we see the market tightening further over the coming months,” analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“As such, we continue to expect Brent oil prices will move up to US$70–80 a barrel over three to six months.” — Reuters

Source: The Malay Mail Online

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked as *

Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.