VIENNA, July 3 ― When Vladimir Putin announced at the weekend that Opec would extend oil production cuts, broadcasting a deal before the group had even met to approve it, the move angered some member nations. They were dismayed at the leading role…
SINGAPORE: Oil prices drifted lower on Tuesday, as weak global data raised concerns about future demand for the commodity despite a positive boost from OPEC’s decision to extend supply cuts until next March.
Brent crude futures for September delivery were trading down 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $64.91 a barrel by 0311 GMT after dipping to $64.66 earlier. Brent climbed more than $2 a barrel on Monday before paring gains later in the day.
U.S. crude futures for August were down 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $58.84 a barrel, after touching their highest in over five weeks on Monday.
“After 2-1/2 years of production cuts, the effects of rolling over production cuts is losing steam,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, adding that markets remained nervous about demand.
“The trade war is not likely to get resolved any time soon and while central banks globally are expected to deliver fresh stimulus in the coming months, economic activity is continuing to trend lower.”
While the U.S. and China agreed at a recent Group of 20 leaders summit to restart trade talks, indications that factory activity shrank across much of Europe and Asia in June while growth in manufacturing cooled in the United States weighed on oil prices.
“The weaker PMI prints killed sentiment overnight, and the market started to factor in the realm of the unknown around shale (oil), so (investors) were worried about the fear of oversupply in the face of weaker demand,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets in Bangkok.
However, the decision to extend production curbs would continue to support oil prices, as OPEC looked to maintain market equilibrium, he said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed on Monday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as the group’s members overcame their differences in order to try to prop up the price of crude.
OPEC is slated to meet with Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, later on Tuesday to discuss supply cuts amid surging U.S. output.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend global output cuts until December 2019 or March 2020.
Russia reduced oil production in June by more than the amount agreed in a global deal to cut output, the energy minister and industry sources said on Monday, as the sector felt the impact of a contaminated crude crisis that crippled exports.
Meanwhile, U.S. producers hit a monthly record of 12.16 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, data showed, though new U.S. shale oil production is expected to slip this year from last year, according to a survey of major forecasters.
VIENNA, July 1 — Opec agreed today to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020, three Opec sources said, as the group’s members overcame their differences in order to prop up the price of crude amid a weakening global economy and soaring US…
VIENNA, July 1 — Oil prices jumped today after Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-member Russia agreed to keep daily oil output caps, but Iran warned the move risks killing off the cartel that pumps a third of global supplies. Ministers from the…
SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Monday after Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq backed an extension of supply cuts for another six to nine months ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna.
Front-month Brent crude futures for September touched an intraday high of $66.44 a barrel and were up $1.57, or 2.4%, at $66.31 a barrel by 0436 GMT.
U.S. crude futures for August rose $1.36, or 2.3%, to $59.83 a barrel after earlier hitting a peak of $60.10, the highest in over five weeks.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies look set to extend oil supply cuts until the end of 2019 after top producers on Sunday endorsed a policy aimed at propping up the price of crude.
OPEC, Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, meet on Monday and Tuesday to discuss supply cuts. The group has been reducing oil output since 2017 to prevent prices from sliding amid a weakening global economy and soaring U.S. output.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend existing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by six to nine months.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the deal would most likely be extended by nine months and no deeper reductions were needed.
“While this needs to be ratified by the remaining members of the OPEC+ group, this appears to be a fait accompli,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets in Bangkok, said oil prices could also be supported in the medium term because of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and as China’s central bank eases monetary policy to offset the impact from U.S. tariffs.
Oil prices have come under renewed pressure in recent months from rising U.S. supplies and a slowing global economy.
U.S. crude oil output in April rose to a fresh monthly record of 12.16 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report on Friday.
Financial markets, meanwhile, were buoyed by a thawing of U.S.-China relations after leaders of the world’s two largest economies agreed on Saturday to restart trade talks.
Still, Citi analysts saw the announcements as a temporary truce to de-escalate the trade and tariff war, and were sceptical that both sides can reach a deal soon even though 90% of the trade deal has been completed.
“The fact that both sides have not been able to get the remainder of the deal done is difficult to comprehend, suggesting either the timing is not good or some may not want a deal,” they wrote in a note.
VIENNA: OPEC and its allies are set this week to prolong oil output cuts to further boost prices, after the two biggest players Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to do so.
Ministers from the 14-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet in Vienna on Monday to discuss output, before gathering a day later for OPEC+, a group of 24 oil-producing countries that includes Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and OPEC cartel kingpin Saudi Arabia agreed Saturday on the sidelines of the G20 in Osaka to extend their deal which aims to keep oil output low owing to abundant world supplies.
“We will extend this deal, Russia and Saudi Arabia. For how long? We will think about that. For six or nine months. It is possible that it could be up to nine months,” Putin said.
OPEC and its oil-producer allies decided in December to trim daily crude output by 1.2 million barrels.
The reduction contributed to oil prices soaring by almost one-third in the first quarter of 2019, boosting precious revenues for OPEC and non-OPEC members alike.
The cartel meanwhile remains on red alert over escalating US-Iran tensions that have fuelled recent strong oil-price gains — but it and other producers are unlikely to end output cutbacks just yet.
Nine more months?
Saudi Arabia’s influential energy minister Khalid al-Falih, arriving in Vienna early on Sunday, declared that he wanted the cutbacks which began in January to be extended by nine more months.
“We have to talk about it with the other ministers. My preference will be nine (months)”, he told reporters. That would extend the deal to March 2020.
United Arab Emirates energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei, upon arrival in the Austrian capital, voiced his support to an extension.
“We look forward to a positive meeting, my view is that an extension is needed given the current conditions of the market,” he told reporters.
Quizzed about the so-called “pre-deal” unveiled in Osaka, Mazrouei replied: “Each country’s voice counts and each country can veto a decision.”
OPEC’s meeting comes against a background of ample global crude supplies, according to both the cartel and International Energy Agency.
The Paris-based IEA watchdog has cut its forecast for 2019 oil demand-growth for a second straight month and has trimmed also its second-quarter forecast.
Saudi Arabia argues that oil supplies are sufficient, pointing to rising stockpiles despite significant output reduction in sanctions-hit Iran and Venezuela, both members of OPEC.
Falih admitted on Sunday that demand “is softening a little bit” but stressed that he expected demand and supply to strike a balance.
“It is still healthy. So it is likely that the market will balance in due course in six to nine months. So we are happy,” he said.
Middle East tensions
Global oil prices began a sharp ascent in mid-May after the sabotage of several tankers off the Emirati coast.
They jumped further after Washington blamed Tehran for a second spate of such incidents close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in mid-June.
Oil prices rose even more after Iran shot down a US spy drone and President Donald Trump axed retaliatory strikes against Tehran at the last minute.
Worries over the demand backdrop persist — particularly from the US-China trade war despite a truce agreed over the weekend.
“Geopolitical risk means the supply outlook is tightening, offsetting the moderate weakening in oil demand growth thus far this year,” said oil specialist Ann-Louise Hittle at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
“There is a downside risk for oil demand through the rest of the year if the ongoing trade war intensifies,” she added. – AFP
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SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Monday after Saudi Arabia said producer club OPEC and Russia were likely to keep withholding supplies, and in relief as the United States withdrew its threat to impose import tariffs on Mexico, removing one cloud over the global economy.
Front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $63.52 at 0310 GMT, 23 cents, or 0.4%, above Friday’s close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $54.29 per barrel, 30 cents, or 0.6%, above their last settlement.
Traders said crude prices were rising because of statements by OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia on Friday saying that the group was close to agreeing extended supply cuts.
“Brent futures continue rising … after the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister expressed confidence that OPEC+ producers will prolong their output cuts programme through the second half of 2019,” said Han Tan, analyst at futures brokerage FXTM.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-members, including Russia, known collectively as “OPEC+”, have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets, said stronger stock markets also supported oil futures.
“With the Mexican stalemate averted and no harmful shockwaves from this weekend G-20 meeting … oil could trade favourably as WTI and Brent will continue to track the broader risk environment high,” Innes said.
Stock markets rose on Monday after a deal between the United States and Mexico to combat illegal migration from Central America late last week removed the threat of U.S. tariffs on goods imported from Mexico.
But analysts said there were still concerns about the health of the global economy, with the United States and China still locked in a trade war.
“Slowing global demand appears to be featuring prominently on the markets’ collective mind, as the fallout from heightened trade tensions continues to be felt in the global economy,” said FXTM’s Tan.
“The sustainability of oil’s recent climb could be determined by the outlooks of several key industry bodies scheduled this week, whereby more downcast projections for global demand could prompt traders to continue chipping away at oil,” he added.
Oil major BP is to publish its statistical review of global energy markets on Tuesday, while China on Friday is scheduled to publish its monthly commodities output data. – Reuters