market stabilisation

 
 

Fed decision unlikely to affect OPR, ringgit

PETALING JAYA: The US Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the federal funds rate at a range of 1.00%-1.25% is unlikely to affect Malaysia’s Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) with a short-term impact on the ringgit.

“While we recognise that external policy moves may prompt market stabilisation measures, on the part of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), we believe that this will not significantly influence the OPR trajectory. Instead, the OPR will likely be influenced by prevailing domestic inflation and growth considerations,” Kenanga Research said in its report today.

Despite an uptick in August inflation to 3.7% (July 3.2%) from supply-side factors, it expects inflation to remain manageable at the prevailing 3% OPR. At the same time, it opined that the current OPR is likewise accommodative of Malaysia’s growth agenda.

According to Kenanga Research, the Fed’s mildly hawkish tones suggests that the ringgit may lose some ground against the US dollar in the near term and expects the immediate impact to be somewhat muted, as it doubts that the September meeting was significant in quelling speculations of a pause in monetary policy tightening.

“Nevertheless, expect the ringgit to be tested above the USD/MYR 4.20 mark in the short term but likely to bounce back to our year-end USD/MYR target of 4.15 as markets settle. However, in the broader context of the ringgit against its major trading partners, we expect the ringgit to remain broadly stable, albeit losing some ground against the euro on a more hawkish ECB (European Central Bank) overtone of late.

“Relative to other advanced market economies though, the strength of the ringgit will hinge on the escalation of tensions (or the lack thereof) arising from US-North Korea sabre-rattling, possibly triggering a risk-off mode for the Asian region as a whole,” it said.

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted at its sixth monetary policy meeting for 2017 to keep the federal funds rate range at 1.00%-1.25%, following the 25-basis-point increase in June. It continues to see a total of three rate increases for 2017 and in 2018 with a more sanguine economic outlook factored in.

Note that the FOMC revised its inflation targets and will start shrinking the Fed’s US$4.5 trillion (RM19 trillion) balance sheet by October, in line with its July statement of portfolio normalisation.

“With the October-November meeting traditionally associated with lower odds of policy rate changes, all eyes are now centred on the possibility of a December rate hike. The implied probability for a December rate hike have since edged above the 50% threshold to 63.8% as at Sept 20; the probability has been consistently under the 50% mark from mid-July to mid-September,” said Kenanga Research.

It retained its house view for two rate increases this year, despite the FOMC’s September statement adding more fuel to the projections of a three rate hike scenario. This is because it is not seeing any pickup in wage growth in the horizon despite labour market strength and a more optimistic economic outlook.

“However, with the possibility of economic growth progressing at a faster clip than even the revised estimates of 2.4% and significant pass through effect of improved economy to wage growth, we can see a case for a third rate hike in December,” it said.

It said the odds for a third rate hike are only modest, at best, based on the belief that a delayed increase will be more prudent in light of US domestic uncertainties and the risk of removing accommodation prior to wage growth picking up.


Monetary conditions remain tight but prospects promising

KUCHING: Malaysia’s continued, albeit moderating, capital outflows suggests that monetary conditions remains tight but analysts see improved prospects for monetary and credit conditions, underpinned by recovery in demand and stronger economic growth. Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd’s research arm (MIDF Research) said continued, albeit moderating, capital outflows suggested that monetary conditions remained tight. “However, with interest […]


Saudi minister optimistic about oil market stabilisation

ABU DHABI, Jan 12 — Saudi Energy Minister Khaled al-Falih said today he was optimistic about a stabilisation of the oil market following an OPEC deal to cut output. “We believe that the agreement that we refer to between us and OPEC and…


China hands over G-20 stewardship with economy stable, for now

BEIJING, Oct 10 — China has turned from a shaky steward to a stalwart of the Group of 20. When China assumed the presidency of the G20 in December, its economy was faltering, the yuan was besieged by speculators and its stock market was in the… Source: The Malay Mail Online


Oil prices slide on profit-taking after two-day jump

Oil prices slide on profit-taking after two-day jump

SINGAPORE/TOKYO (Sept 30): Oil prices dropped on Friday, as investors took profits following a seven-percent rise in the last two sessions, amid doubts that OPEC’s first planned output cut in eight years would make a substantial dent in the global crude glut.

Brent crude futures had fallen 63 cents to US$48.61 a barrel by 0645 GMT, after settling the previous session up 55 cents or 1.1%.

U.S. crude was down 58 cents at US$47.25, after closing up 78 cents and having touched a one-month high of US$48.32 in the previous session.

Categories:

Source: The Edge Markets


OPEC chief: Oil market stabilisation deal may last one year – RIA

OPEC chief: oil market stabilisation deal may last one year - RIA

MOSCOW/LONDON (Sept 20): A possible deal to support oil prices by the world’s leading producer countries may last for one year, the secretary-general of OPEC said on Tuesday, longer than other officials have indicated.

OPEC and non-member producers including Russia are discussing a deal to stabilise the market by at least freezing output, although key details such as the timing and baseline for any deal have yet to emerge.

“One year, we are looking at one year,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said, RIA news agency reported.

Categories:

Source: The Edge Markets


Gold snaps losing streak; rises above US$1,200 as stocks steady

gold_2532472k

SINGAPORE (Feb 17): Gold snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday, in choppy trade that saw the metal swing between gains and losses around the key US$1,200 an ounce level as stock markets consolidated recent gains. The stock market stabilisation, after last week’s rout on concerns about the global economy, has reduced investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. The yellow metal hit a one-year high of US$1,260.60 an ounce last week.Categories: Latest News Source: The Edge Tags: gold, market stabilisation, singapore, stock market


China market stabilisation efforts save Asia FX for now

F4K8a7m9_400x400

SINGAPORE/SEOUL (Jan 5): Most emerging Asian currencies rebounded on Tuesday as China took steps to restore calm, including through suspected currency market intervention, after a plunge in China’s share markets the previous day forced emerging market investors into retreat. Strong doubts remained over how long the uneasy calm would last, as there are mounting concerns over the economic slowdown.Categories: Latest News Source: The Edge Tags: china, market stabilisation, oub, singapore


Beijing spends US$800b to prop up stocks, with modest results

SHANGHAI, July 23 — China has enlisted US$800 billion (RM3.044 trillion) worth of public and private money to prop up its wobbly stock markets, a Reuters analysis shows, but the impact of the unprecedented government-orchestrated rescue has so far been modest. Public statements, media reports and market data reveal that Beijing unleashed five trillion yuan (M3.05 trillion) in funds — equivalent to nearly 10 per cent of China's GDP in 2014 and greater than the four trillion yuan it committed in response to the global financial crisis — to calmRead More